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Looking Back, Moving Forward : Insights on 2024 and Projections for 2025
Payment Card Fraud
- There was a 25% increase in the number of compromised payment cards shared on Dark Web carding markets compared to 2023, coupled with a 12% increase in the amount of new underground carding markets.
- We saw a 292% increase in the number of compromised payment cards shared on Telegram compared to 2023, coupled with. a 44% increase in the number of new payment card fraud groups, channels, and checkers.
Malware Attacks
- There was a 13% increase in the number of malware victims in 2024 compared to the previous year.
- Infostealers continued to be the dominant the malware scene.
- The top infostealers in 2024 were lummac2, redline, and vidar which is a shift from 2022-2023 where Redline dominated the scene.
Check Fraud
- We collected over 1.5 million stolen check images in 2024 – up 54% from the previous year.
- There was a 75% increase in check fraud groups and channels compared to the previous year.
Trends expected to thrive in 2025
- QR Code Scams: As the use of QR codes rises in popularity 1, fraudsters may use this technology to lure individuals onto phishing sites designed to capture sensitive information. An example of an emerging technique involves the fraudster physically overlaying the ingenuine QR code overtop an authentic QR code designed to capture payment cards.
- AI Advances in the Fraud Front: Cybercriminals are now leveraging the advancements in artificial intelligence for their illicit operations through AI-powered voice cloning to bypass biometric authentication as well as increasingly sophisticated social engineering attacks.
- AI For Malware Distribution: AI can write code, suggest functions, and complete code snippets, speeding up development for malware, keyloggers, and trojans based on simple prompts, thus reducing the need for advanced programming skills. Additionally, it can even help rewrite malware in different programming languages, enhancing performance or evasion capabilities.
- Cashouts with Cashier’s Checks: Over the last several months, cashier’s checks have become increasingly popular amongst fraudster communities on the Dark Web. An emerging TTP involves fraudsters opening bank accounts with small amounts of cash before immediately purchasing a cashier’s check for low dollar amounts. The fraudster then would alter the dollar amount, and attempt to deposit.
- Pay-By-Bank and Fraud: Major retailers may be adding the pay-by-bank option to online transactions to avoid paying card processing fees. One major retailer, Walmart, will launch this payment option in 2025. This payment method enables direct, instant ACH payments from consumer bank accounts. We expect that fraudsters will attempt to capitalize on this.